Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan: India’s Calculated Response and Next Steps
Modi-Trump Call: India’s Strategic Approach to US Immigration Policies
In a significant diplomatic exchange, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump had their first phone conversation since Trump’s return to the White House. The discussion, held on January 27, revolved around key bilateral issues, including immigration policies, economic collaboration, and Modi’s anticipated visit to the US.
A Strategic and Diplomatic Engagement
The long conversation between the two leaders underscored the importance of India-US relations. President Trump, known for his transactional approach to diplomacy, refrained from issuing ultimatums regarding illegal immigrants and instead indicated that Modi would act in a manner beneficial to both nations.
“He (Modi) will do what’s right. We are discussing,” Trump stated when asked about India’s stance on accepting deported illegal immigrants. The restrained tone was a stark contrast to Trump’s usual rhetoric on immigration, reflecting the high-stakes nature of US-India ties.
India’s Position on Illegal Immigration
New Delhi has taken a pragmatic approach to Trump’s immigration policies, agreeing to take back Indian nationals who have entered the US illegally. For India, this is a calculated move to ensure the continuation of legal migration channels, particularly for students and skilled professionals.
The Indian government’s key concern remains the manner in which deportations are executed. If the deportations become highly publicized, it could create political challenges domestically, making it difficult to differentiate between legal and illegal migrants in public perception.
US Visa Issuance and Deportation Numbers
Despite Trump’s strict immigration policies, the US Mission to India issued over one million nonimmigrant visas in 2024, a testament to the high demand for travel, business, and education among Indian nationals. The number of illegal immigrants deported to India in 2024 stood at approximately 1,100, a fraction of the total number Trump intends to deport.
Trump’s ambitious plan to deport one million undocumented migrants annually faces logistical challenges. ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) reported 271,484 removals in FY 2024, far from Trump’s goal. To achieve mass deportations, the US would need to significantly expand detention centers and deportation flights, with some reports suggesting the Pentagon’s involvement.
The H-1B Visa Factor
For New Delhi, the real concern lies in the future of the H-1B visa program, which is crucial for Indian IT professionals and students. Indian nationals received 72% of all H-1B visas issued between October 2022 and September 2023, with major IT firms like Infosys, TCS, HCL, and Wipro benefiting immensely.
President Donald has expressed support for the H-1B program, calling it essential for bringing “very competent” and “great” talent to the US. However, there are concerns over potential policy shifts that could impact skilled migration.
Modi’s Expected US Visit
Trump also confirmed that Narendra Modi is expected to visit the US in February, further strengthening diplomatic ties. This visit is likely to focus on economic cooperation, defense agreements, and strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.
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