Trump’s H-1B Reform Plans Unlikely to Affect Indian IT Workers, Says USISPF

The future of the H-1B visa program remains a central discussion in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, particularly as Republican candidate Donald Trump suggests plans to reform the system. However, according to Mukesh Aghi, president and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF), potential changes may not have the adverse impact on Indian IT professionals that some fear.

Aghi, in an interview with Moneycontrol, emphasized the ongoing demand for skilled tech workers in the United States, especially in fields such as biotech, artificial intelligence (AI), and cybersecurity. “Demand for these workers is very high, and the current rules constrain the supply side,” he said. “There is enough momentum between Democrats and Republicans to solve this issue because business people are crying that we don’t have skilled resources.”

Why H-1B Visa Reforms Matter in the US-India IT Corridor

The H-1B visa, a critical pathway for foreign workers in specialty fields to work in the U.S., has been a highly debated policy. For years, Indian professionals have filled gaps in the American workforce, especially in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields. These highly skilled workers not only bolster U.S. businesses but also strengthen bilateral ties, forming the backbone of the flourishing US-India tech relationship.

Aghi underscored the pivotal role of Indian professionals, stating that they make U.S. companies more efficient and competitive. As a result, the possibility of an overhaul to the H-1B system raises important questions about the future of this talent pipeline. Yet, Aghi is optimistic that the changes won’t hinder Indian workers, even under a Trump administration.

Trump: Republican Stance on H-1B Visa Reforms

Trump’s immigration policies have historically been stringent, with a focus on prioritizing American workers. However, there is bipartisan recognition of the need for skilled workers to support the economy. The struggle to secure qualified talent has driven U.S. businesses to advocate for reforms to the H-1B program that enhance access while preventing misuse.

Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who initially pursued the nomination but later pledged support for Trump, has also voiced a need for a merit-based approach to the H-1B process. Ramaswamy criticized the existing lottery system, suggesting instead that the visa program prioritize top talent in essential sectors. “When it’s lasted that long, you need to shut it down, start with a blank slate, and rebuild from scratch,” he said.

Addressing H-1B System Loopholes

While the H-1B program enables legal entry of skilled workers, Aghi acknowledged that the current system contains inefficiencies. For instance, multiple applications from the same applicant can create bottlenecks, and the restrictive lottery often excludes well-qualified individuals. Aghi argued for a process that not only supports the U.S. economy but also considers the people-to-people and economic ties between India and the United States.

“A lot of Indian STEM graduates, for instance, could fill positions that U.S. companies desperately need, making them contributing taxpayers from day one,” Aghi said. By keeping these graduates in the U.S., businesses could foster a thriving workforce while reducing reliance on the lottery model.

Bipartisan Support for H-1B Reforms and Green Card Reform

As both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge the importance of skilled immigration, momentum is building to address the structural challenges of the H-1B program. Long waiting periods and the backlog for green cards, particularly for Indian nationals, remain pressing issues.

Currently, the green card process for H-1B holders often spans decades due to strict per-country caps. Aghi expressed optimism that bipartisan efforts could help alleviate these challenges. “Today, if an H-1B worker applies for a green card, the waiting time is in decades. That’s because you have a quota system, and we need to fix that,” he said.

The Larger Geopolitical and Economic Context

Geopolitically, the U.S. views India as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific, especially as China becomes an economic competitor. This partnership strengthens the U.S. incentive to keep Indian professionals in the workforce. Additionally, the U.S. is relocating manufacturing chains from China to India, marking a deeper collaboration that Aghi sees as pivotal.

USISPF’s Aghi further noted the economic interdependence between the U.S. and India. With bilateral trade approaching $200 billion and projections to reach $500 billion, both nations stand to benefit significantly from policies that facilitate movement of skilled labor. Additionally, the 5.5 million-strong Indian American community contributes significantly to U.S. GDP, cementing their role as key contributors to the economy.

Future Prospects for H-1B and Skilled Immigration

In the short term, Trump’s track record on immigration complicates the path forward. Yet, with leading voices in the tech industry, including Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, and Cognizant CEO Ravi Kumar S, advocating for skilled immigration reforms, there is hope for lasting change. The bipartisan push to address the skills gap may be the key to a more streamlined H-1B system and green card reforms.

“The best way to make U.S. factories fully functional, for example, is to improve policies around legal immigration,” Aghi said, citing the need for skilled workers to fill roles created by initiatives such as the CHIPS Act.

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