H-1B Visa Reform: Will Talent Take a Backseat to Salary?

H-1B Visa Reform: In a move set to stir renewed debate in the tech and academic worlds, the Trump administration is preparing to publish a proposed rule that would fundamentally alter the current H-1B visa lottery process. The proposed H-1B Visa Lottery Reform seeks to replace the long-standing randomized selection system with a salary-based ranking system—one that critics argue will favor high-wage earners and disadvantage early-career professionals, particularly international students.

H-1B Visa Reform; A Familiar Rule Returns

This initiative isn’t new. In January 2021, near the end of Donald Trump’s first term, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) finalized a rule that would have eliminated the randomized H-1B lottery. The rule proposed that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) select H-1B visa petitions based on the offered salary, starting with the highest-paying jobs. Under this method, individuals offered Level 4 salaries—typically fully competent professionals—would be prioritized over those offered entry-level pay.

Though the Biden administration ultimately shelved the rule after multiple delays, the Trump team is now trying again, pushing the H-1B Visa Lottery Reform closer to reality as the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) reviews the proposed regulation. The rule could be cleared for public comment within weeks.

Weighted Selection or Disguised Elimination?

Unlike the previous iteration, the current rule carries a slightly modified title: “Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions.” The use of the word “weighted” has prompted speculation that a revised approach may still involve a lottery—albeit one that gives significantly higher odds to higher-paying jobs.

According to economist Mark Regets of the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), weighting might mean an H-1B applicant earning $200,000 a year would have twice the chance of selection compared to one earning $100,000. However, skeptics warn this could simply be a rebranding of the same restrictive policy, designed to edge out recent graduates and lower-paid professionals.

H-1B Visa Reform: Impact on International Students and Key Industries

The H-1B Visa Lottery Reform could have far-reaching consequences for international students and sectors dependent on global talent. DHS data from the 2021 rule revealed that nearly 90% of international student H-1B cases examined were at Level 1 or Level 2 wage levels. Under the proposed rule, these applicants would face steep odds: USCIS would reject all Level 1 petitions and select only a fraction of Level 2 applicants.

This approach raises concerns about equity and long-term innovation. International students comprise over 70% of full-time graduate students in fields like electrical engineering and computer sciences in the U.S., which are critical to artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and biotech advancements. Moreover, 83% of Ph.D. holders working in computer and information sciences research in the U.S. are foreign-born.

Critics warn that the proposed reform prioritizes senior talent over rising stars, risking America’s ability to attract and retain the next generation of tech leaders, scientists, and entrepreneurs. The case of Nobel Prize laureate Katalin Karikó—whose early research on mRNA began with a low-paying visa-based job—illustrates how focusing solely on salary could stifle potential breakthroughs.

Legal and Legislative Hurdles

Opponents argue the proposed H-1B Visa Lottery Reform is legally dubious. Organizations including the American Immigration Lawyers Association and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce contend the rule violates the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), which mandates that H-1B petitions be considered in the order they are filed—not based on wage levels or other arbitrary criteria.

The DHS previously acknowledged this legal constraint in 2019 when it stated it lacked the statutory authority to prioritize applications by salary. Yet the Trump administration appears determined to test the boundaries of administrative discretion, possibly inviting legal challenges if the rule proceeds.

Talent Scarcity Remains Unaddressed

While the proposed reform reshapes who gets selected, it sidesteps the core issue: the severe shortage of H-1B visas relative to demand. In FY 2026, USCIS received over 343,000 eligible registrations—rejecting nearly two-thirds due to the strict 85,000 annual cap. That cap represents only 0.05% of the U.S. labor force, despite the economy’s heavy reliance on specialized tech and STEM roles.

Bo Cooper, former general counsel of USCIS, criticized the rule in 2021 for favoring established professionals at the expense of cultivating fresh talent. “America’s competitors for talent focus on attracting young, bright graduates,” he said. “This rule signals we prefer those who are already accomplished—closing the door on those who could be.”

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