H-1B Visa Decline: The Future of Indian Tech in the US

The numbers tell a story of quiet upheaval—one unfolding far away from television studios, election rallies, or Silicon Valley’s glossy promises. A new analysis released by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) shows that the top seven Indian IT firms secured just 4,573 H-1B approvals for initial employment in FY 2025, a staggering 70% plunge since 2015 and a 37% fall from 2024, based on the USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub.

It is more than a statistical drop—it is a question that cuts into the heart of a decades-old aspiration: Is the American Dream, once powered by skill and merit, fracturing for those who helped build its digital backbone?

For generations, Indian engineers formed the scaffolding of America’s tech rise—from coding the early software that drove Wall Street to laying foundations for cloud computing, AI, and cybersecurity. Today, many find themselves at the edges of an ecosystem where the shoreline of opportunity seems to recede faster than they can swim.

H-1B Visa Decline: Big Tech Takes Over, Indian IT Fades from the Leaderboard

For the first time in H-1B history, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Google dominate the top four spots for new H-1B approvals—while Indian IT firms, once omnipresent, are pushed to the margins. Only three India-based companies even appear in the top 25 employers for initial H-1B approvals.

Among them, TCS remains the lone major Indian outpost in the upper tier. The company secured 846 approvals this year—down sharply from 1,452 in 2024. Despite a modest 2% rejection rate for initial filings, the turbulence emerges in extensions: their denial rate climbed to 7%, far higher than the 1.9% USCIS average for continuing petitions.

In comparison, Infosys, Wipro and LTIMindtree maintained denial rates between 1% and 2% for continuing employment. But among large employers filing new H-1Bs, the pressure is visible: HCL America faced 6% denials, LTIMindtree 5%, and Capgemini 4%.

The pattern is unmistakable: this is no longer just a tighter labour market—it is a recalibrated one.

A System Protecting What It Already Has

The NFAP brief highlights a dramatic shift in how US companies approach immigration. The priority is no longer on importing new talent—it is on protecting the employees who already exist within the system.

Continuing-employment petitions—essentially renewals—continue to sail through with low denials. But the pipeline for new talent is drying up, and this narrowing funnel is reshaping both opportunity and expectation.

This trend extends beyond visas. Immigration platform Beyond Border reports that approvals for “software engineers” at the labour certification stage have fallen for four years in a row. H1BGrader tracks a similar contraction: certifications have slid from 40,378 in 2022 to 23,922 through Q3 2025.

The message is clear: America is not shutting its doors, but it is raising its thresholds.

H-1B Visa Decline: The ‘Cheap Labour’ Myth Falls Apart

For years, critics of skilled immigration have argued that H-1B workers undercut wages. But USCIS data paints a much sharper, more honest picture.

In FY 2024:

• The average salary for H-1B professionals in computer-related roles was $136,000

• The median salary was $125,000

• 63% of approved beneficiaries held a master’s degree or higher