US Rice Imports: Data Contradicts Trump’s Claims of Dumping

In a charged exchange at a White House roundtable with American farmers, US President Donald Trump declared that India “can’t be allowed to dump rice” in the United States, vowing to resolve the perceived issue “in two minutes” through tariffs.
The event, attended by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, was meant to highlight concerns of US agricultural producers—but it instead sparked questions over whether the underlying claims align with trade realities.

Trump insisted that rapidly applied duties would “take care of the problem,” a statement that resonated politically but stood in sharp contrast with the factual landscape of US rice imports and production.

US Rice Imports: The Numbers Tell a Different Story

Despite the rhetoric, the United States is not a large rice producer by global standards. It ranks 13th, with an estimated 7.05 million tonnes (mt) of production in 2024–25—far below India’s 150 mt output. Yet the US remains a net exporter of rice, shipping out roughly 3 mt while importing just 1.6 mt.

The financial picture reinforces this:

• US rice exports were valued at $2.46 billion in 2024 and $1.30 billion between January–August 2025.

• US rice imports were valued at $1.49 billion in 2024 and $1.07 billion from January–August 2025.

Ironically, the two biggest suppliers of rice to the US—Thailand and India—are not sending cheap grain at all. Instead, they supply premium, aromatic varieties such as Thai Hom Mali, Thai Jasmine, and Indian basmati. These specialty rices command high international prices and bear no resemblance to low-grade dumped commodities.

Premium Grain, Not Dumped Rice

A closer look at US rice imports underscores the disconnect:

• Thai Hom Mali rice currently commands around $1,125/tonne.

• Jasmine rice follows at $690–700/tonne.

• Indian basmati is fetching $880–900/tonne, depending on grain quality.

These prices are far above the export rates of US-grown 4% broken white rice ($560–570/tonne) or parboiled rice ($670–675/tonne). In simple terms, the US is importing specialty rice that domestic farmers do not produce in comparable quantities or quality.

Economists have long argued that when a country exports more than it imports—and imports mainly premium varieties—it cannot reasonably claim “dumping.”

US Rice Imports: Would New Tariffs Hurt Indian Rice Exporters?

The short answer: not significantly.

India, the world’s largest rice producer and exporter, shipped 22.5 mt of rice in 2024–25. USDA projects that Indian rice exports could rise to 25 mt in 2025–26. Yet the United States forms only a tiny slice of this massive export ecosystem.

India’s Basmati Exports (2024–26)

• Total: 60.65 lakh tonnes (lt) worth $5.94 billion

• To the US: 2.74 lt worth $337 million

India’s Non-Basmati Exports

• Total: 141.30 lt worth $6.53 billion

• To the US: 0.61 lt worth $54.6 million

Even during the current fiscal year (April–October), the story remains unchanged: the US consistently accounts for a very small share of India’s rice shipments.

Indian basmati dominates in West Asian markets—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the UAE—while non-basmati flows primarily into Africa’s western coastline, including Benin, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, and Senegal.

In the US market, a handful of major Indian companies, such as LT Foods, whose “Royal” brand reportedly holds a 55% market share in North America, cater largely to diaspora populations and niche demand.

Thus, any tariff imposed by Washington may cause trade friction but is unlikely to inflict economic harm comparable to past measures on Indian shrimp, gems and jewellery, or apparel.