India–US Trade Deal: Brink of Completion as Talks Accelerate

India–US Trade: After months of intense virtual negotiations, India and the United States are finally on the verge of sealing the long-discussed India–US trade deal, a landmark pact that could reshape the economic engagement between the world’s two largest democracies.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal on Monday confirmed that the talks are in their final stages, with both sides inching toward agreement on a comprehensive package addressing reciprocal tariffs, oil duties, and market access concerns.

“We should get a closure soon,” Agrawal said, noting that negotiators have been working continuously for months to bridge remaining gaps.

India–US Trade Deal: Two-Part Pact Designed for Speed and Strategy

Officials familiar with the discussions revealed that the proposed pact—originally pushed forward by top leadership in February—has been divided into two carefully structured components:

1. A first tranche targeting resolution of tariff-related issues, including the controversial 25% reciprocal duties and the additional 25% oil tariffs imposed earlier by Washington.

2. A second, more complex tranche, which will take longer to negotiate due to the sensitivity of certain sectors and deeper structural changes.

Sources say the India–US trade deal is being shaped as a “highly detailed, WTO-compliant framework” designed to withstand political changes in both countries and support long-term economic cooperation.

Ambitious Target: $500 Billion in Trade by 2030

The agreement aims to elevate bilateral trade from the current $191 billion to an ambitious $500 billion by 2030—a target first discussed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington earlier this year.

Officials say progress has accelerated rapidly in recent weeks, with negotiators confident that an additional round of talks may no longer be necessary.
“They (the US) have to get back to us,” a senior official shared. “It’s the most comprehensive, WTO-compliant treaty compared to any other nation. We negotiated very cautiously, keeping in mind the sensitivities of key sectors. There is no deadline.”

India–US Trade: LPG Supply Arrangement Progressing in Parallel

Alongside the main agreement, discussions on a separate India–US LPG supply arrangement are also advancing.
Agrawal clarified that while the LPG talks are progressing positively, the procurement plan is independent of the trade pact. The goal is to maintain the broader trade balance, especially at a time when energy trade plays an increasingly critical role in bilateral ties.

Agriculture & Dairy: India Holds Its Ground

While the US has repeatedly pressed for expanded access to India’s agricultural and dairy markets, New Delhi has remained cautious. These sectors are politically and economically sensitive, supporting millions of livelihoods across India.
Insiders say India has made it clear that any concession must be fair, balanced, and aligned with domestic realities.

Echoing this sentiment, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal recently stated:
“We want a fair, equitable, and balanced trade deal with the US. If that happens, it could happen any day—tomorrow, next month, or next year. As a government, we are preparing for everything.”