India-US Mini Trade Deal Nears Finalization

India-US Mini Trade Deal: The India-US Mini Trade Deal is on the brink of being sealed, with both nations accelerating efforts to finalize the agreement within the next 24 to 48 hours. While the pact promises to boost trade in goods and open new avenues for key sectors, politically sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy are likely to remain outside its scope — at least for now.

An Indian government official close to the negotiations stated, “The deal is in its conclusion phase. Most issues related to agri may be discussed later. As of now, they seem to be out of the ambit of this phase of the deal.”

India-US Mini Trade Deal: A Strategic, Limited-Scope Pact

The interim pact is expected to cover trade in goods only, excluding broader trade services and digital economy discussions. Sources confirm that the average tariff under this India-US Mini Trade Deal is likely to be around 10%, significantly lower than the looming 26% tariff announced earlier by the US.

Negotiations have intensified in recent weeks, especially with the July 9 deadline fast approaching — a cutoff point set by the US administration to resume its suspended reciprocal tariffs. The pressure has been mounting for both sides to strike a deal before the tariffs snap back to the April 2 levels of 26% for Indian exports.

Sensitive Sectors Deliberately Left Out

One of the core reasons for excluding agriculture and dairy from the deal is the sensitivity of these sectors in India. The vast majority of Indian farmers engage in subsistence farming on small landholdings, making them particularly vulnerable to global market disruptions.

The US, however, has been persistent in demanding access for genetically modified (GM) crops and cattle feed—a non-starter for New Delhi due to concerns over food sovereignty and public sentiment.

“Washington is pushing hard for GM exports, but we are not in a position to compromise on our farmers’ interests right now,” said a senior Indian trade negotiator.

India-US Mini Trade Deal: India Seeks Gains in Textiles and Electronics

India, in contrast, is eyeing greater access to the American market for labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, leather, and electronics. Officials say that while these industries were well represented in the deal’s discussions, reciprocal gains have yet to be firmly locked in, given the US insistence on broader concessions.

Trump’s Tariff Warning Adds Pressure

In April, US President Donald Trump announced a 26% reciprocal tariff on nations with significant trade surpluses with the US, including India. Though the tariffs were temporarily paused, President Trump recently reiterated that countries failing to finalize deals by July 9 would face the full brunt of these duties.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized this urgency during a CNN interview, stating, “President Trump’s going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that, if you don’t move things along, then on August 1, you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level. So I think we’re going to see a lot of deals very quickly.”

What Lies Ahead

If finalized, this India-US Mini Trade Deal could serve as the foundation for a more comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Sources suggest that broader talks, covering services, digital trade, and other complex areas, may begin post-July 9.

“This is a start — a small but strategic step. It’s a way to prevent a full-blown trade escalation and keep the momentum going,” said an international trade expert based in Washington.

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