H-1B: New Restrictions from Trump Expected by Dec 2025
Trump H-1B Rule: Immigration Shake-Up Ahead for Skilled Foreign Workers
The Trump administration has signaled plans to introduce a new set of immigration regulations, with the upcoming Trump H-1B rule expected to tighten how employers use the visa and who qualifies for it. According to the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) latest regulatory agenda, the proposed rule—titled “Reforming the H-1B Nonimmigrant Visa Classification Program”—could be published as early as December 2025.
The announcement comes shortly after the White House floated a $100,000 fee for certain H-1B visa holders, a move that has already sparked debate across the tech sector, higher education, and immigrant advocacy groups.
What the Proposed Trump H-1B Rule Could Mean
The DHS summary outlines several key priorities of the Trump H-1B rule:
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Revising eligibility for cap exemptions.
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Stricter oversight of employers with past compliance issues.
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Increased scrutiny over third-party placements, particularly in IT and consulting sectors.
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New measures to “protect U.S. workers’ wages and working conditions.”
These steps mark a second attempt by Trump officials to implement a rule that was blocked in 2020. During Trump’s first term, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) denied H-1B applications at historically high rates until lawsuits forced a reversal. This time, by starting the process early, the administration aims to avoid the same legal pitfalls.
Why H-1B Visas Matter
H-1B visas remain the primary pathway for high-skilled foreign nationals to work in the United States and eventually secure permanent residency. Each year, the U.S. allows 65,000 new H-1B petitions, with an additional 20,000 set aside for candidates with advanced U.S. degrees. Demand, however, far exceeds supply—DHS reported over 442,000 registrations in FY 2025 for only 85,000 available slots.
At American universities, international students make up 73% of full-time graduate enrollment in computer and electrical engineering, highlighting the program’s role in fueling the nation’s talent pipeline.
Revisiting the 2020 Attempt
The Trump H-1B rule is likely to revisit elements of the blocked October 2020 regulation. That earlier rule sought to:
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Narrow the definition of “specialty occupation” to make it harder for foreign professionals to qualify.
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Limit H-1B workers at client or customer sites to short approval periods, in some cases just one year.
Business groups, universities, and industry experts argued that such restrictions threatened innovation and U.S. competitiveness. Courts agreed, striking down the regulation on the grounds that it violated the Administrative Procedure Act.
Contrast With the Biden Administration
The Biden administration’s final H-1B rule, published in December 2024, attempted a more balanced approach. While it included the controversial “directly related specialty” requirement, it clarified that the phrase meant a “logical connection” between the degree and the job duties—leaving flexibility for emerging fields like artificial intelligence.
The Trump administration, however, could once again push for a narrower interpretation. Yet legal experts say the Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling ending Chevron deference—which limits agencies’ ability to broadly interpret ambiguous laws—might restrict how far the administration can go this time.
Beyond H-1B: Employment-Based Green Cards in Focus
The DHS agenda also outlines a forthcoming rule that could reshape employment-based green card categories, with a targeted publication date of January 2026. Provisions under review include:
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Stricter evidentiary requirements for EB-1 extraordinary ability green cards.
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Tighter eligibility for national interest waivers.
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Revisions for O-1A visas, which surged in use after Biden-era guidance encouraged broader applications.
Immigration attorneys warn that raising the bar on EB-1 or restricting waivers could reduce opportunities for top global talent, especially in science, technology, and research.
The Bigger Picture
Research consistently shows that high-skilled immigration fuels U.S. productivity and wage growth. Economists Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, and Chad Sparber have found that foreign STEM workers account for up to 50% of U.S. productivity growth between 1990 and 2010. Limiting H-1B visas, analysts caution, could undermine both innovation and the competitiveness of American firms.
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