Gold prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory in the coming week, supported by sustained safe-haven demand and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may move towards policy easing, market analysts said. In contrast, silver, after witnessing a dramatic surge, may enter a phase of consolidation as investors reassess valuations at elevated levels.
According to market experts cited by PTI, global macroeconomic developments will remain firmly in focus, with investors closely tracking key data releases from major economies. Inflation figures, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, GDP growth numbers, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings, and weekly jobless claims are expected to provide critical cues on the future direction of US monetary policy.
These indicators are likely to influence currency movements, bond yields and overall risk sentiment, all of which play a decisive role in shaping precious metal prices.
Pranav Mer, Vice President of Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, said that apart from macro data, global political developments could also sway market sentiment. He noted that US President Donald Trump’s address at the World Economic Forum, along with an upcoming Supreme Court ruling on trade-related matters, will be closely monitored by investors for potential market-moving signals.
Gold: Domestic Market Performance
On the domestic front, gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) posted strong gains over the past week, rising by Rs 3,698 or 2.7 per cent. Prices touched a fresh lifetime high of Rs 1,43,590 per 10 grams midweek before retreating marginally towards the end of the week.
Mer attributed part of the rally to the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, which tends to lift domestic gold prices. However, he added that some gains were capped due to profit-booking and long liquidation on Friday. The easing of geopolitical risk premium, following a softer US stance on Iran, stronger-than-expected US employment data and a firm dollar, also weighed slightly on prices.
Global Gold Markets Remain Firm
In overseas markets, gold futures on the Comex recorded a weekly gain of $94.5, or 2.09 per cent, settling at $4,595.4 per ounce. Prices had earlier surged to an all-time high of $4,650.50 during the week, reflecting heightened risk aversion and expectations of lower interest rates.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research for Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to Iran, reinforced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. He added that expectations of US rate cuts, a softer dollar, declining treasury yields and continued central bank buying have created a supportive backdrop for bullion.
Looking ahead, Mallya expects gold prices to advance towards Rs 1,46,000 per 10 grams on the MCX, while global prices could approach the $4,750 per ounce mark in the coming week, reinforcing the positive gold price outlook next week.
Gold: Silver Rally Cools After Record Surge
Silver, meanwhile, delivered an exceptional performance, significantly outperforming gold. MCX silver prices surged nearly 14 per cent, or Rs 35,037, during the week, touching a record high of Rs 2,92,960 per kilogram. In the international market, silver climbed $9.2, or 11.6 per cent, to close at $88.53 per ounce, after briefly hitting a lifetime high of $93.75.
Mer said the sharp rally in silver continued despite intermittent profit-taking, aided by reports that the Trump administration would refrain from imposing tariffs on critical mining sectors for the time being. However, he cautioned that as prices inch closer to the psychologically important $100 per ounce level, the metal could face corrective pressure.
Structural Support Remains Intact
Vijay Kuppa, CEO of InCred Money, said that both gold and silver remain structurally strong, even though near-term volatility cannot be ruled out. He pointed out that robust central bank gold purchases, healthy ETF inflows, persistent geopolitical tensions and global macroeconomic uncertainty continue to strengthen the case for precious metals as portfolio hedges.