BRICS 2025: Booming Ties, Growing Deficits, and Challenges

BRICS 2025: India’s expanding trade with BRICS is reshaping the country’s global economic landscape, with trade volumes reaching historic highs. As India deepens its ties with the now 11-member bloc, which represents nearly half of the world’s population and accounts for about 40% of global GDP, the economic potential is evident—but so are the strategic imbalances.

According to a recent report by Rubix Data Sciences, India’s total trade with BRICS nations surged to $399 billion in 2024, growing at an impressive annual rate of 20% since 2020. However, the country’s trade deficit with these nations has ballooned threefold, from $68 billion in 2020 to $209 billion in 2024, raising questions about long-term sustainability.

BRICS 2025: A New Economic Order

The BRICS grouping—originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—expanded in 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This expansion has significantly amplified the bloc’s economic clout, contributing a massive $10.5 trillion in global trade last year and positioning BRICS as a net exporter in merchandise trade.

For India, the numbers tell a compelling story. Imports from BRICS countries jumped to $304 billion in 2024, representing 43% of India’s total imports, up from 35% in 2020. This dramatic increase highlights India’s growing reliance on BRICS nations for key commodities and industrial inputs.

Russia: Energy Ties, Strategic Dilemma

India’s expanding trade with BRICS is being driven heavily by energy imports from Russia. Following the Ukraine conflict and global realignment of energy supply chains, Russia emerged as India’s top crude oil supplier, accounting for 35% of India’s total oil imports in FY2025. Imports from Russia averaged 1.76 million barrels per day, causing the India-Russia trade deficit to skyrocket to $59 billion, an eighteenfold increase from 2020.

While this move has secured India’s energy needs at competitive rates, the sharp imbalance in trade raises concerns. With few reciprocal exports to Russia, India’s position becomes increasingly one-sided.

BRICS 2025: China – The Ever-Growing Imbalance

The most significant trade gap is with China, where the deficit stood at $94 billion in 2024. Total trade between the two countries reached $124 billion, but Indian exports declined 6% since 2020, while imports—mainly in electronics and machinery—rose 17%. Despite diplomatic efforts to diversify, India continues to depend on Chinese components vital to its manufacturing and technology sectors.

Exports: Slower Growth, Select Bright Spots

While India’s exports to BRICS nations have grown to $95 billion, the pace has been moderate at 11% annually. These exports now constitute 22% of India’s total export portfolio.

Countries like Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have emerged as more balanced partners. Notably, trade with Brazil stands out: India maintains a trade surplus, exporting agrochemicals and petroleum products while importing agricultural goods like sugar. The bilateral trade has shown healthy growth—16% in exports and 13% in imports annually.

India’s strength in refined petroleum exports also plays a strategic role. With over 250 million metric tonnes in refining capacity, India ranks seventh globally and supplies refined fuels to at least six BRICS nations.

Strategic Questions and Global Reactions on BRICS 2025

Despite economic benefits, India’s expanding trade with BRICS is increasingly complex. The widening deficits—especially with China and Russia—underscore the need for strategic recalibration. The surge in imports may boost short-term supply chains but poses risks to India’s long-term economic resilience.

Adding to the geopolitical undertone, former U.S. President Donald Trump recently warned against aligning with what he described as “anti-American policies” of BRICS, announcing an additional 10% tariff on countries engaging too closely with the bloc. Though vague in detail, Trump’s statement signals potential trade repercussions for India’s growing BRICS engagement.

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